Why Your Valentine’s Day Dinner Will Cost More in 2026

Valentine’s Day dinner has always been a meal people refuse to give up. Shoppers are planning to spend an average of nearly $200 on the holiday this year, up from $188.81 in 2025, according to the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics. Last year’s Toast data shows exactly where that money went inside restaurants.

Toast’s Valentine’s Day report, which tracks menu trends across roughly 156,000 full-service restaurant locations, shows that diners went straight for classics last February. From what they ordered to what they skipped, the data reflects a night when people treated dinner as the occasion itself.

The holiday fell on a Friday, which likely brought more diners out. But what diners ordered and what they passed on said more about how they wanted the night to feel.

Sticker shock is part of this year’s Valentine’s Day dinner

Heading into 2026, some items from last year’s Valentine’s Day menu are now more expensive. Beef prices have continued to climb as a tight cattle supply pushes costs higher, and tariffs on imported wine have added pressure to a category that saw one of the biggest lifts on the holiday.

The full impact of those tariffs didn’t reach diners right away. Suppliers had stocked up ahead of the changes and worked through existing inventory before passing costs on, so much of 2025 passed before the increases hit menus. Menu prices rose 4.1% from December 2024 to December 2025, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. For diners planning another Valentine’s Day out, the same meal may cost noticeably more this time around.

Steak and wine dominated Valentine’s Day orders

The night played out the way Valentine’s Day dinners almost always do. Steak was the clear winner, with diners ordering nearly 100% more than on a typical Friday night, and wine wasn’t far behind at 38%. Diners also ordered more pasta, seafood, and desserts, with each category up 46% to 53%. The menu choices made the intention clear; this was a meal people planned around, not one they stumbled into.

Wine over beer, dessert after dinner, a proper entrée instead of something quick — the orders reflected a night when people wanted to slow down and sit across from someone. Valentine’s Day has always drawn diners to that kind of evening, and last February was no different.

Last year’s steak dinner also came before the beef price increases that reached consumers beginning that spring, as the tightest cattle supply in decades pushed costs higher throughout 2025.

Casual food took a back seat

More casual fare, such as hot dogs and beer, saw slight declines of 10% and 5%, respectively, compared with the average Friday. The decreases were minimal, but next to the jumps in steak and wine, they suggested something about what diners were after that night.

The hot dog drop also comes with context worth noting. The Fourth of July fell on a Friday in 2025, which means one of the biggest hot dog days of the year is baked into the average Friday comparison, making that 10% dip read differently than it might otherwise.

The wine that saw one of the holiday’s biggest lifts was likely ordered months before tariffs on imported bottles (EU tariffs are currently at 15%) began reaching restaurant beverage menus, with the steepest increases not arriving until late summer.

Valentine’s Day dinner stretched earlier — and later

Valentine’s Day dinner didn’t stay within the usual window last year. Both the early and late ends of the restaurant evening saw close to a 25% increase, with some diners grabbing an early table before the rush and others making a late night of it.

The earlier push fits a pattern of early dinners that’s been building for some time. On Valentine’s Day, when the best tables fill up quickly, an early reservation may have been the only option for diners who didn’t plan weeks in advance.

Where you were shaped how the night played out

Weather may have mattered as much as the reservation itself. Sun Belt states such as Utah, Florida, and Arizona saw dining activity jump by more than 25%, while states with winter weather saw dining activity fall.

Oregon was among the hardest hit. Sleet, snow, and freezing rain moved through the state on February 13 and lingered into the following night, and restaurant visits fell 10%. Maine, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin also lagged behind the national average, a reminder that on a holiday built around going out, the forecast can matter as much as the reservation.